Bitcoin Faces Resistance at ETF Cost Basis

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As BTC tests ETF cost basis, the market shows signs of balance. Yet, short-term holder losses remain a major obstacle ahead.

Bitcoin climbed over 5% over the past 24 hours to nearly $75,000, alongside a broader rally. The crypto asset is also trading above a crucial structural level that could redefine market positioning.

But pressure beneath the surface is still building quietly.

Break-Even Zone

According to the latest report by Axel Adler Jr, Bitcoin is currently testing a critical structural level as its price converges with the ETF Cost Basis at $74,232, which represents the average acquisition price of BTC held by US-based exchange-traded funds.

After spending several weeks below this range, the market has now brought the ETF cohort back to break-even. This level now stands as the most important threshold for evaluating the condition of ETF holders.

A steady move above $74,232 would indicate that this segment has transitioned out of an unrealized loss position into neutrality, which will be the first signal of potential stabilization. However, the broader market structure remains under pressure due to the positioning of short-term holders (STHs), whose cost basis is significantly higher at approximately $83,734. They are still roughly $9,000 below their cost basis, which continues to weigh on price during upward moves.

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