BTC On-Chain Signal Points to Multi-Year Consolidation

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Bitcoin’s liveliness metric is falling, signaling a potential multi-year reset phase as analysts say accumulation cycles may now be starting.

Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted Liveliness metric peaked in December 2025 and has begun reversing downward, signaling the end of the distribution phase and the start of a new accumulation period that historically lasts between 1.1 and 2.5 years.

According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., the on-chain signal means investors should prepare for an extended market reset rather than a quick recovery, although institutional demand through ETFs may alter the traditional cycle pattern.

Shift From Distribution to Accumulation
In a post published on February 17, Adler wrote that Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted Liveliness reached 0.02676 in December 2025 and has started to decline. The indicator tracks the ratio of spent coin days to created coin days, which is filtered to remove transfers within the same holder.

According to his chart, past cycles in 2020 and 2022 showed the same structure, where the metric peaked shortly after price highs and then trended lower during accumulation periods lasting 1.1 to 2.5 years.

Adler noted that the price of Bitcoin surpassed $126,000 in October 2025 before falling by about 45%, adding that liveliness tends to lag price because it is cumulative.


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