Bitcoin Recovery Not Confirmed Yet

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Nearly half of the Bitcoin supply sits underwater, yet accumulation lags, which is keeping the price trapped in a fragile consolidation range for now.

Bitcoin climbed back to $68,000 after several days of decline, as markets reacted positively to Donald Trump’s State of the Union remarks. The crypto asset added fresh 4% gains on Thursday.

But data shows that BTC is still trapped in a structurally defensive consolidation, as the price oscillates between the $60,000 and $69,000, which is being deemed as the main demand zone. In fact, Glassnode experts stated that the market is stabilizing but not yet recovering.

Key Market Conditions

At a 46% drawdown from the all-time high, Bitcoin sits at a depth historically associated with mid-to-late bear market phases, where time itself often becomes a risk factor rather than a catalyst for upside. Nearly 9.2 million BTC are currently held at a loss. This means that half of the circulating supply is underwater, a condition that aligns with prior late-stage bear environments. However, it does not, on its own, point to renewed strength.

Despite the scale of unrealized losses, accumulation behavior remains muted, as evidenced by an Accumulation Trend Score persistently below 0.5 since early February. This indicates a lack of conviction-driven buying, particularly among larger entities whose participation is typically required to form a durable bottom.

Liquidity conditions further validate this fragility. Glassnode found that the 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has slipped below the critical 1.0 threshold, which appears to be a transition into an excess loss regime where realized losses dominate profits – a state that can persist for months and is associated with impaired capital rotation and higher downside risk.

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