Has Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Failed? What’s the Next Move
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Analysts are split on whether Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle has ended in 2025, with institutional ETFs and regulatory shifts cited as key factors.
A wave of institutional crypto participation spurred by exchange-traded funds, an easing of regulations in the US, an increase in global liquidity, and a Federal Reserve leadership change are just some of the reasons why analysts think the typical four-year crypto cycle is broken.
The four-year cycle is tied to Bitcoin halving events, which cut miner rewards in half, reducing the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation.
Historically, this was seen as the catalyst for a predictable pattern: accumulation, a post-halving bull run that peaked around 18 months later, followed by a sharp correction and multi-year bear market.
Some analysts note that Bitcoin’s current price action is playing out exactly as a four-year cycle would, as it has declined 30% from its peak in the year after the halving, and has entered a bearish phase.
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